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July 2026 - Financial Market Monthly
- 9 hours ago
- 2 min read
Anyone who has taken a look at the global financial markets in recent weeks has witnessed a fascinating spectacle. It was a time of records, but also of extreme contrasts. On one hand, we saw a literal party in the equity markets: indices in Europe, Switzerland, and emerging markets chased one all-time high after another. On the other hand, the supposed "safe havens" and crypto favorites suddenly ran out of steam - both gold and bitcoin came under noticeable pressure.
This development clearly shows us that the markets have ended their broad-based rally. Investors are looking closer again. The wheat is being separated from the chaff, and fundamental data alongside interest rate differentials are taking the wheel once more.
Stay disciplined for growth tomorrow
Records, contrasts, and the moment of truth in the markets
A major driver behind these contrasting forces and the overall optimistic sentiment was the view at the gas pumps and energy prices. As crude oil became cheaper for the second consecutive month, market participants' inflation worries also subsided. This shift temporarily takes the wind out of the central banks' sails, offering a moment of truth that brings tangible relief to the trading floors.
„We recommend maintaining a constructive allocation to equities while remaining selective across regions and sectors. The improving inflation backdrop supports risk assets, but with valuations elevated, future returns will increasingly depend on earnings delivery rather than multiple expansion. Investors should therefore remain invested while ensuring portfolios remain well diversified.“
- Daniel Brem CFA, Chief Investment Officer & Partner
What lies ahead?
The summer weeks offer no breather - on the contrary: the tension is building as the next quarterly earnings season is right around the corner. Following the stellar gains of recent months, valuations on the stock exchanges have become ambitious. Now, companies must prove that the advance praise was justified. The upcoming figures and, above all, management outlooks will be the decisive factor determining whether we see this rally continue into the second half of the year.
The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a buy recommendation, or an invitation to trade financial instruments. 4E Capital AG assumes no liability for decisions made based on these analyses. Investments in financial markets involve risks and can lead to the total loss of the invested capital. If necessary, please consult a qualified financial advisor.
